@PhDThesis{Costa:2023:ObNuDi,
author = "Costa, Saulo Barros",
title = "Extreme precipitation events on the east coast of Brazil’s
Northeast: observational, numerical, and diagnostic analysis",
school = "Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)",
year = "2023",
address = "S{\~a}o Jos{\'e} dos Campos",
month = "2022-11-10",
keywords = "WRF configurations, weather analyses, natural disasters,
configura{\c{c}}{\~o}es do WRF, an{\'a}lise de tempo, desastres
naturais.",
abstract = "The Northeast of Brazil (NEB) is the region with the highest
number of municipal decrees of emergency declarations caused by
weather events in the period from 2013 to 2022 and with the
highest rate of natural disasters per risk area. In the NEB, the
city of Recife and its metropolitan region are the biggest
localities with populations in risk areas. Focusing on this
region, three years of natural disaster alert issuance data, from
2017 to 2019, were used to analyze and characterize severe
rainfall events in the eastern state of Pernambuco. The disaster
records could be grouped into 24 extreme severe weather systems
that were analyzed in detail with satellite, weather model, radar,
and rain gauge data. Among the natural disaster events analyzed,
four events of extreme precipitation were chosen for simulations
with the WRF model in high resolution (2.5 km) and diagnostics
analyses. First, a set of configurations of the model was tested,
including 11 microphysics (MPH) schemes, 9 planetary boundary
layer (PBL) schemes, 6 cumulus (CUM), and 5 surface (SFC) schemes.
Then, through diagnostic analysis, the conditional instability,
the moisture supply at low levels, and the support of the medium
and high levels in storm formation were verified. The
observational analysis indicated that the warnings were
concentrated during the rainy season and in a narrow coastal belt.
The main systems responsible for the heavy precipitation were the
ITCZ and high pressure on the surface that blocked the trade winds
and favored convection. Small-sized multicell were the types of
radar reflectivity cores lasting longer than 24 hours that caused
the heaviest rainfall in the region. The models configurations
were verified by 298 rain gauges with hourly registrations through
statistical metrics such as bias, MSE, standard deviation, and
Pearsons correlation, and demonstrated that the MPH schemes of
Thompson Aerosol-Aware and NSSL + CCN, ACM2, MYJ for the PBL,
KFCuP for CUM, and RUC for SFC were considered the best. All the
cases were better with CUM parametrizations turned on. In all
cases, diagnostics analyses highlighted the strong moisture flux
convergence at the low levels, the presence of wind shear on the
middle layer, weak cyclonic vorticity advection at high levels,
and CAPE values around 1500 J/kg, in addition to an inverse
relationship between wind shear action and CAPE values. This work
is part of the national strategy for monitoring, diagnosing, and
modeling information that can minimize or even prevent damage
caused by severe precipitation events. RESUMO: O Nordeste do
Brasil (NEB) {\'e} a regi{\~a}o com maior n{\'u}mero de
decretos municipais de emerg{\^e}ncia causados por eventos
meteorol{\'o}gicos no per{\'{\i}}odo de 2013 a 2022 e com a
maior taxa de desastres naturais por {\'a}rea de risco. No NEB, a
cidade de Recife e sua regi{\~a}o metropolitana s{\~a}o as
maiores localidades com popula{\c{c}}{\~a}o em {\'a}reas de
risco. Com foco sobre essa regi{\~a}o, tr{\^e}s anos de dados de
envio de alertas de desastres naturais, de 2017 a 2019, foram
usados para analisar e caracterizar eventos de chuva severa no
leste do estado de Pernambuco. Os registros de desastres puderam
ser agrupados em 24 casos de sistemas de tempo severo que foram
analisados em detalhes com dados de sat{\'e}lite, de modelo, de
radar e de pluvi{\^o}metros. Entre os eventos de desastres
naturais analisados, quatro ventos de precipita{\c{c}}{\~a}o
extrema foram escolhidos para simula{\c{c}}{\~o}es com o modelo
WRF com alta resolu{\c{c}}{\~a}o (2,5 km) e an{\'a}lises
diagn{\'o}sticas. Primeiro, um conjunto de
configura{\c{c}}{\~o}es do modelo foram testadas, incluindo 11
esquemas de microf{\'{\i}}sica (MPH), 9 esquemas de camada
limite planet{\'a}ria (PBL), 6 esquemas de cumulus (CUM) e 5
esquemas de superf{\'{\i}}cie (SFC). Em seguida, atrav{\'e}s
das an{\'a}lises diagn{\'o}sticas, a instabilidade condicional,
o fornecimento de umidade em baixos n{\'{\i}}veis e o suporte de
m{\'e}dio e altos n{\'{\i}}veis na forma{\c{c}}{\~a}o das
tempestades foram verificados. As an{\'a}lises observacionais
indicaram que os alertas se concentraram durante a
esta{\c{c}}{\~a}o chuvosa e na estreita faixa litor{\^a}nea. Os
principais sistemas respons{\'a}veis pelas fortes
precipita{\c{c}}{\~o}es foram a ZCIT e uma alta press{\~a}o na
superf{\'{\i}}cie respons{\'a}vel pelo bloqueio dos ventos
al{\'{\i}}sios e favorecer a convec{\c{c}}{\~a}o.
Multic{\'e}lulas de tamanho pequeno foram os tipos de
n{\'u}cleos de refletividade de radar com dura{\c{c}}{\~a}o
superior a 24 horas que mais causaram chuvas fortes na
regi{\~a}o. As configura{\c{c}}{\~o}es do modelo foram
verificadas atrav{\'e}s de 298 pluvi{\^o}metros com registros
hor{\'a}rios de chuva atrav{\'e}s de m{\'e}tricas
estat{\'{\i}}sticas como o vi{\'e}s, MSE, desvio padr{\~a}o e
a correla{\c{c}}{\~a}o de Pearson e demonstraram que os esquemas
de MPH de Thompson Aerosol-Aware e NSSL + CCN, de PBL ACM2 e MYJ,
KFCuP para CUM e RUC para SFC foram considerados os melhores.
Todos os casos foram melhores com a parametriza{\c{c}}{\~a}o de
CUM ligada. Em todos os casos, as an{\'a}lises diagn{\'o}sticas
destacaram a forte converg{\^e}ncia do fluxo de umidade em baixos
n{\'{\i}}veis, a presen{\c{c}}a de cisalhamento do vento na
m{\'e}dia camada, fraca advec{\c{c}}{\~a}o de vorticidade
cicl{\^o}nica em altos n{\'{\i}}veis e valores de CAPE em torno
de 1500 J/kg, al{\'e}m de uma rela{\c{c}}{\~a}o inversa entre o
cisalhamento do vento e os valores de CAPE. Esse trabalho se
insere dentro da estrat{\'e}gia nacional de monitoramento,
diagn{\'o}stico e modelagem de informa{\c{c}}{\~o}es que podem
minimizar ou at{\'e} mesmo prevenir danos causados por eventos de
chuva severa.",
committee = "Herdies, Dirceu Luis (presidente/orientador) and Gon{\c{c}}alves,
Luis Gustavo Gon{\c{c}}alves de and Rivero, Silvio Nilo Figueroa
and Dias, Pedro Leite da Silva and Barros, Helber Gomes and Souza,
Diego Oliveira de",
englishtitle = "Eventos de precipita{\c{c}}{\~a}o extrema na costa leste do
Nordeste do Brasil: an{\'a}lise observacional, num{\'e}rica e
diagn{\'o}stica",
language = "en",
pages = "99",
ibi = "8JMKD3MGP3W34T/47T8KPS",
url = "http://urlib.net/ibi/8JMKD3MGP3W34T/47T8KPS",
targetfile = "publicacao.pdf",
urlaccessdate = "11 maio 2024"
}